Happy New Year! Like every pundit geek with a soapbox, I made a bunch of predictions about last year. Looking back, my skill with the crystal ball definitely went down from the year before. Here’s what I predicted for 2010, along with how those panned out:
- Three Words: Dead Cat Bounce – I expected the economy to double-dip in to another recession and we’d be worse off in 2010 than 2009. While we didn’t hit the double-dip, employment is still in the gutter so there hasn’t been much improvement either. I’ll call this a narrow miss.
- Oracle will buy VMWare – I’m really surprised Oracle didn’t buy them, given all the other acquisitions they made last year. I’ve been betting on this for two years, so maybe its not going to happen. This is a miss, for now.
- Java cements its position as the new Cobol – yes, this was akin to betting the sun would come up tomorrow.
- Silverlight starts to kill off Flash – I could call it a hit, but similar to .NET 4 above, no one cares. Silverlight and Flash are trying to kill each other off in a race to irrelevance.
- Chrome starts to kill off Firefox – definitely a hit. As I mentioned in one of my posts, all the geeks I know are on Chrome. Firefox 4 might change things, but they’ll be coming in as underdogs.
- Someone buys ExtJS – another one of my two-year-running predictions, and a miss again.
So for another year, I batted about 50-50. For 2011, rather than betting as a bystander, I’m going to change things up and get more proactive. Below is my list of things I want to see happen in 2011:
In 2011, I want….
- Google to kick Oracle’s ass over Android – Oracle has become a public nuisance, and Google needs to bring them down a notch.
- Someone to finally build a good Windows notebook – yes, I’m a heretic; I like Windows 7. But is seems Apple is the only company that knows how to make a good notebook. Dell, HP, Toshiba, etc… are all too interested in scraping the bottom of the laptop market. Hopefully one of these morons wakes up and builds a machine as good as the Macbook Pro.
- ActiveState to push out ActiveRuby – I suspect this is in the works, and it would be a huge push for expanding Ruby’s footprint in the enterprise.
- Google to buy Sencha (ExtJS) – I really love ExtJS, and my only reservation with selling my technology soul to them is the fact they are still a VC-funded startup. Someone is going to have to buy them so the vulture VC bean-counters can extract their pound of flesh. if Oracle or IBM bought Sencha, I suspect most the community would drop it like it were toxic, radioactive waste. Google needs to step up and buy them so this awesome product has a future.
- World Peace, or more specifically, lets quit wasting money on Iraq and Afghanistan. We already know how these are going to end, so lets just cut to the chase. Leave tomorrow. While we’ve been pouring a trillion dollars down the drain, China has been building massive infrastructure like cross-country high speed rail. Lets take the money we would waste in Afghanistan and start building next-generation wireless infrastructure for the whole country, laying our own high-speed rail and developing real renewable energy sources.