Springtime and Apple
On its usual springtime schedule, the new iPhone was announced today. I didn’t take the plunge on a iPhone until last year’s 3GS, and I don’t see any reason to upgrade, but the most exciting part of iPhone 4 is what it means for the evolution of the iPad.
First we have the “Retina Display” with its ungodly pixel density. We’re still talking about a 3-1/2 inch display, so the ability to render microscopic text still doesn’t change the fact it is microscopic. It is still too small to read. But I can imagine the next revision of the iPad getting the same screen, which would be incredible with that much real estate.
Next, the front-facing camera for video calls. This is one of those features that should have been available for years, so shame on Apple for waiting this long. On the iPhone, this will just be more of a nuisance. We’ll see stupid teenagers and blondes in SUVs driving around talking in to their phones. Not a good idea. And let’s not even think about the implications with Chatroulette. Ick.
But on a iPad, the same front-facing camera becomes much more usable. I have family scattered all around the globe, and having the camera along with the big screen on the iPad would make it much more pleasant to do video calls. You would actually be able to see detail on the bigger screen. And the iPad would be big enough that you wouldn’t see anyone other than an absolute idiot driving around talking in to it.
Finally, the last major improvement I care about is multitasking. This was one of those abilities that will really allow the iPad to penetrate into what was low-end PC space. No more having to completely load an application from zero when hopping around, and you can have processes running in the background. I really see this as having much more useful potential on the iPad than the iPhone.
While I’ll definitely upgrade to the new iOS 4 on my 3GS, I’ll be keeping the wallet closed until the next iPad picks up these killer features. If we actually see a Google Tablet with a similar set of specs, we’ll really see an acceleration into the next era of touch-driven computing.
C the Light
So I spent my Saturday morning in line with a bunch of other dorks, gleefully handing over a silly amount money for the latest from the temple of Apple — an iPad. I wanted an iPad for a “sofa computer”, something convenient for checking email and Twitter, or browsing the web, while sitting on the sofa with my daughter. I knew the limitations, and actually appreciate some of them (no Flash). But after using it now for a few days, I’ve come to respect the iPad for being much more.
First, the iPad makes for an awesome media player. The screen is bright, sharp and has vibrant colors. I will definitely be using it to catch up on movies and TV that I normally can’t dedicate the couch time to watch.
Social networking on it also rocks. Tweetdeck is awesome on the iPad, and mobile Safari does a pretty good job with web content, but has some flaws. The only glaring holes right now are missing Facebook and iChat applications. The former should be corrected pretty quickly, but on Apple can fix the latter.
One surprising area for me has been using the iPad as a media reader. The New York Times Editor’s Choice application really shows off the promise of the format, and I look forward to seeing their full application. iBooks is also suprisingly good. Being a gadget geek, I have a Kindle, and it is clear the iPad is going to crush it unless Amazon cuts the price in half. Reading books on the iPad is a better overall experience than on the Kindle.
The biggest surprise has been the iPad as an application platform. I’ve thought about developing for the iPhone, but found the screen too small to build the kind of applications I would be interesting in. The iPad is a near perfect form factor with enough screen real estate to build some exciting applications, enough so that I’ve actually dived in to learning the bastard language of the world: Objective-C. I’ve got some ideas in head already for applications, so that makes learning it a more goal-oriented task.
Now about Safari. I had originally thought I would just build mobile Safari applications using JavaScript, HTML and CSS. But Safari on the iPad is a bit quirky. I checked out the demo sites for ExtJS and JQuery UI on the iPad, and the widgets don’t render as well as they do on desktop Safari. Even JQuery Touch as a little bit off. The demos would flash a green background on transition that was annoying. Even the stuff I expected to be fine wasn’t. For example, the right scroll bar in the Word Press edit field for posts doesn’t render, making it difficult to add posts.
Safari on the iPad is good enough for the basic web tasks (Google, GMail, Slashdot), but it is not ready as an application platform. Native applications will be the way to go, and I think the iPad is going to lead to a lot of demand for Objective-C developers who will be writing tomorrow’s world changing applications.
Rails Flashback
While poking around one of the Ruby on Rails sites, I stumbled upon the video of DHH’s keynote at RailsConf 2009. Rails 3 looks really cool, but DHH has definitely mellowed from the 2006 and 2007 RailsConfs I attended. Just watching the keynote brought back some good memories of the 2007 RailsConf.
RailsConf 2007 was held in Portland, Oregon, which is about the most awesome city I’ve been to for a conference. It has all the amenities of a big city, but still keeps a quirky small town feel. Between the conference, awesome micro-brews, and Powell Books, it was a really good time.
This was the RailsConf I went to with my Windows notebook while 99% of everyone there was running on a MacBook, so I played the leper. The speakers were great, and it was absolutely hilarious when one of the vendors had the Extra Action Marching Band show up at lunch the first day to perform. It pissed off the stodgy convention center management, but it was a sight to see. Check out James Duncan Davidson’s excellent photos if you want to see how fun a RailsConf could be.
I was thinking of going to RailsConf this year, but it is in Baltimore. I’ve never been a fan of east coast conferences, and I’m worried RailsConf is losing its fire. Just like JavaOne tapered off in to boredom, RailsConf on the east coast could be its jump the shark moment. But if they ever get around to having it in Portland again, I’ll be there.
The Road Ahead
Seeing as I did pretty well on my technology predictions for 2009, I’ll head out on the limb again for 2010. Here’s what I see happening:
- Three Words: Dead Cat Bounce – If you haven’t heard this term before, it is a way of describing the financial markets when they make a small bounce after a downturn and then head downwards again. Unfortunately, I’m expecting things to get much worse this year, as all the problems that caused the Great Recession are still present and the mortgage mess is only getting worse. Add in the fact that all our large financial institutions are still fundamentally insolvent and exist at the grace of the American taxpayers, and you have a recipe for a big mess. Looking back in December 2010, people will say 2010 was much worse than 2009.
- Oracle will buy VMWare – VMWare tried to gussy themselves up by acquiring SpringSource, and this will be the year they go a courting. Oracle is a natural, as it fills some holes for them and gets them the crown jewels of Java, the Spring Framework
- .NET 4 will be a Killer – This is almost a gimme, but it is worth stating. With the dynamic language features in .NET 4, we’ll see a dynamic language crack the corporate mainstream market. This is nothing but good news for all the other dynamic language warriors out there like Ruby and Groovy. 2010 will be an awesome year for dynamic languages.
- Java cements its position as the new Cobol – With dynamic languages making inroads on the heels of .NET 4, no one will want to be starting new straight Java projects anymore, relegating it to the world of endless maintenance.
- Silverlight starts to kill off Flash – Silverlight 3 has almost caught up with Flex, and Silverlight 4 should push it ahead. Yes, there will still be a ton of Flash out there, and most of it will be annoying banner ads or boutique marketing websites. Developers who do not want to learn JavaScript but still build RIAs will be using Silverlight 4.
- Chrome starts to kill off Firefox – Let’s face it, the only reason most of us use Firefox is for the plugins, with Adblock Plus being the biggie. Chrome is blazing fast and has a more streamlined browsing experience. When Chrome gets a rich plugin community going, and a port of Adblock Plus, Firefox will be on the ropes.
- Someone buys ExtJS – This was my wildcard last year. I expected Microsoft to buy them, but they went with JQuery instead. They will be purchased by someone this year, and I’ll bet on some oddball shotgun wedding instrumented by greedy VCs.
The 2009 Crystal Ball
Last January, I hopped up on my soapbox and made several predictions in the technology field for the coming year. Now that we’re wrapping up the end of the year, I went to take a look at how well I did.
Prediction #1 – Sun is toast : yep, nailed it.
Prediction #2 – Windows 7 will rock : another gimmee; Windows 7 is very good and was what Vista should have been.
Prediction #3 – Google and Apple will turn out to be evil after all : probably debatable. Google definitely, and Apple is still working on it.
Prediction #4 – Microsoft won’t be the evil empire anymore : swing and a miss. They’re sure trying to sound less evil, but they’re still Microsoft. I guess Ray Ozzie is not going to be able to move the mountain.
Prediction #5 – Oracle buys SpringSource : I was pretty close. They got bought by VMWare instead, which makes zero sense. I still think I’ll be proven right, as you’ll see when I make my predictions for next year.
Prediction #6 – Microsoft buys ExtJS : no dice. Admittedly, this was a wildcard guess. I am surprised that someone hasn’t bought them yet.
So all told, I had four of my six predictions mostly on the mark, which isn’t bad. I’ll have to start working on my scientific predictions for next year over the holidays. I just need a few good cups of eggnog first.